India set to allow cheaper wines, cars from Europe !!!

Now one can hope to drive in the latest Audi or BMW at a considerably lower price as the government may lower the import duty to 30% in 2017 and scale it down further to 20% in 2020 as part of the Broad-based Trade & Investment Agreement (BTIA) with the 27 nation bloc. Similarly, customs duty on "high-end" wine is proposed to be slashed to 30% from near 150% levels now. Although the move may not be palatable to local players, for consumers, this could mean an endless party as anything that costs over $3.75 a bottle is likely to be subjected to lower import duty. The steep reduction will make life difficult life for local players, especially at a time when home-grown barons such as Vijay Mallya too have been forced to sell stakes to global giants. In case of automobiles, when to reduce import duty to 30% is a bone of contention. EU is demanding that the levy be slashed to that level in 2017 itself, while Indian negotiators had got the Trade & Economic Relations Committee headed by the prime minister to agree to the cut sometime around 2022. The current tariff for import of automobiles is 100%, although the notified rate, which is applied to new cars, is 60%.

Rupee falls to 2-month low, erases post-reform gains !!!

The rupee fell to its lowest in early two months after data showing a record trade deficit and a contraction in factory output stoked fears about economic growth at a time of continued high inflation. The rupee's fall to as low as 55.12 to the dollar has erased a rally sparked by the government's announcements of a slew of fiscal and economic reforms in mid-September that took the local currency to as high as 51.32 to a dollar on Oct 5. However, the rupee has steadily slipped since that peak, as investors resumed their focus on an economy set to grow at its slowest pace in a decade and on little prospects of immediate rate cuts as Reserve Bank of India retains its focus on inflation. The trade deficit "is negative on the rupee. The uptrend in headline WPI into 8 per cent has come into radar now. The rupee will need strong support from the euro to prevent extended weakness beyond 55.10," said Moses Harding, head of asset liability management at IndusInd Bank.

SILVER TREND

The Silver is in long- short-medium- short- term bull phase .Currently Silver is in strong uptrend with good momentum and the trend is supported with good volume The open interest is not increasing with trend . Cautious point is buying at higer levels seems decreasing. The oscillator is showing BUY signal For short term The current position is BUY .Positionally Support for the Silver is 60111-59431-59211-59177-58330-.Resistance for the Silver is 61539

GOLD TREND

The Gold is in perfect uptrend .Currently Gold is in strong uptrend with good momentum and the trend is supported with good volume The open interest is not increasing with trend . Cautious point is buying at higer levels seems decreasing. The Gold is now trading in overbought level. The Gold is now trading in overbought level. The oscillator is showing BUY signal For short term The current position is BUY .Positionally Support for the Gold is 31151-31063-30972-30970-30950-30686-. Immediate resistance for Gold is 31864.

CRUDEOIL TREND

Overall trend of the Crudeoil is bearish for medium-long term .Currently Crudeoil is in strong uptrend and the trend is supported with good volume The open interest is not increasing with trend .. The Crudeoil is now trading in oversold level. The Crudeoil is now trading in oversold level. The oscillator is showing BUY signal For short term Crudeoil is in HOLD LONG position.Positionally Support for the Crudeoil is 4656-4649-.Resistance for the Crudeoil is 4750-4871-5019-5024.

NIFTY TREND ANALYSIS

Nifty closed on a bearish note at 5686. So today the first resistance for nifty is at 5706-10 level. Next resistance ranges are at 5726-29,5762-67,5804-08,5824-28,5842-46,5871-76,5897-02,5917-22 levels. On downside first support is at 5666-62 level. Next supports are at 5645-40, 5610-05,5585-80,5560-55,5518-13,5488-83,5465-60, level.So today be very alert below 5640 and avoid longs below that level and on upside intra resistance will be at 5710 and 5729 level.

Sensex flat; BHarti Airtel up 2% on 2G auction !!!

The BSE Sensex remained lackluster amid low volumes, tracking mixed global cues. Investors awaited for September industrial output data that may come in higher at more than 3% led by stronger core sector growth, according to CNBC-TV18 poll. This compares to the 2.7 percent in August which is a month on month pick up simply indicating that the trend would then be on the upside in the second half of the fiscal. The 30-share BSE benchmark gained 18.31 points at 18,701.99 and the 50-share NSE benchmark rose 10.4 points to 5,696.65. Country's largest telecom operator Bharti Airtel gained 2 percent as auction for 2G spectrum began today morning. Its rival Idea Cellular went up 1.5 percent. United Spirits extended gains to 20.7 percent following the upgrade reports by brokerage firms after the stake sale deal between the UB group and UK based Diageo. JPMorgan has upgraded the stock to overweight and raised target of Rs 1645 on the stock while CLSA raised the target to Rs 1800.

United Spirits shares jump on Diageo deal !!!

On Monday, shares of United Spirits Ltd. jumped as much as 21% to a 2-year high after several brokerages upgraded the stock, saying the Indian liquor company sold a stake to Diageo at a higher than expected price. Morgan Stanley raised its rating on United Spirits to 'overweight' from 'equal-weight', saying the $2.1 billion deal priced the company "significantly higher" than its base case value. "USL is now a stock for every portfolio, we believe," Morgan Stanley analysts wrote in a note on Monday, while also raising its price target to 1,905 rupees from 1,000 rupees. Diageo agreed on Friday to buy a 53.4 percent stake in the liquor maker controlled by Indian businessman Vijay Mallya by first acquiring 27.4 % from its founders at 1,440 rupees per share, and then launching a mandatory offer for the remainder. United Spirits shares were up 20.6 percent at 1,640.70 rupees as of 0503 GMT, after rising to as much as 1,646.00 rupees, their highest since October 7, 2010. CLSA raised its rating to 'buy', while setting a new target price at 1,800 rupees, saying the deal would benefit United Spirits by reducing debt levels, increasing earnings, imposing financial discipline and providing operational advantages. "We see this deal as a game changer for UNSP," CLSA said in an email to clients.

September IIP contracts shockingly to 0.4% YoY !!!

The Index of Industrial Production ( IIP) for the month of September fell to a shocking (-) 0.4 per cent on a year-on-year basis. The number is way below the ET Now poll estimates of 3%. Revised figures released on Monday showed August output growth was revised down to 2.3 percent from 2.7 percent. In the April-September period, industrial production expanded an annual 0.1 percent. The consumer durables sector contracted at (-)1.7% versus a growth of 8.9% year-on-year. The manufacturinf sector growth also fell sharply at (-)1.5% versus 3.1% YoY. The basic goods sector exhibited a growth of 3.5% versus 5.3% and the mining sector grew at 5.5% versus (-) 7.5% YoY. The electricity sector grew ar 3.9% versus 9% YoY. Indian economy is set to expand at the world's fastest rate over the next 50 years to emerge as a major force globally, but it would still rank as the second worst in terms of prosperity of its citizens. Over the 50-year period between 2011-2060, India will register an annual economic growth rate of 4.9 per cent, as per a latest report by Paris-based international grouping of the world's leading economies, the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development ( OECD).