RBI's credit policy today

The Indian market has been rangebound over the last many sessions. After a mildly bullish trade on Friday, the equity benchmarks witnessed lacklustre activity and closed marginally in the red on Monday. The Sensex closed down 73 points at 19,244.42. The Nifty ended at 5,857.90, 21 points below its previous close. The market will closely watch the Reserve Bank of India’s mid-quarter monetary policy review today. According to CNBC-TV18's poll, 70 percent of bankers and economist expect the Reserve Bank to cut cash reserve ratio (CRR) by 25 to 50 basis points. Only 30 percent expect RBI to keep the CRR unchanged. Most don’t believe the Reserve Bank will cut policy rates. Infact 90 percent said no repo rate cut. However, there is unanimity that rate will be cut atleast by January. Majority expect 25 to 50 basis of repo rate cut before the financial year ends.

GOLD INTRA DAY

SELL GOLD 05FEB2013 31400 WITH SL 31425 TGT 31350/31300/31250 DEPEND ON TREND BUY GOLD 05FEB2013 ABOVE 31425 SL 31350 TGT 31500/31540/31600

Global & local cues that will impact Nifty today

In the US, the Dow and S&P 500 closed higher for the day and the week following an upbeat government jobs report and amid ongoing "fiscal cliff" negotiations, while the Nasdaq finished in the red, dragged by Apple's sharp decline. For the week, the Dow rallied 0.99 percent; the S&P 500 added 0.13 percent, while the Nasdaq fell 1.07 percent. The CBOE volatility index slipped And on economic data front, the monthly non-farm payrolls rose by a surprising 146,000 versus an expectation of 93000. The unemployment rate slipped to 7.7 percent in November. Meanwhile, the consumer sentiment index tumbled to 74.5 from 82.7 in a preliminary December. There are no signs yet of any breakthrough in the fiscal cliff logjam.. Instead in a clear indication of hardening of stance, house speaker and republican leader John Boehner said that President Barack Obama had decided to slow walk the US economy right off the fiscal cliff. European shares closed flat in volatile trading Friday following a pair of mixed economic reports from the US, while Germany’s lowered growth outlook put a lid on gains. In Germany, the central bank has cut its growth forecasts for the economy. The Bundesbank now expects the German economy to grow by 0.7 percent this year, down from its earlier forecast of 1 percent. The forecast for 2013 is more worrying. The Bundesbank expects growth of just 0.4 percent, down from the previous projection of 1.6 percent. Political uncertainty once again in Italy after Prime Minister Mario Monti said he is going to step down ahead of the end of this term. His decision to call for polls once the 2013 budget is approved after the party of former Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi withdrew their support from Monti's government. Berlusconi also said that he would make another run for Prmie Minister in the next polls. Monti did not say whether he would run in the next election. Greece's debt buy back offer ended over the weekend with bankers and officials saying that the deal went well. Athens offered to buy back around 30 billion euros in bonds as it saw to lower its debt levels. According to sources, Greece raised about 25-27 billion euros and may re-open the buy back for a short period for additional bids from Greek banks to make up for the short fall.

NIFTY INDEX LEVEL TODAY

Nifty closed on a slight bearish note at 5907.40 So today the first resistance for nifty is at 5924 level. Next resistance ranges are at 5945,5970 levels. On downside first support is at 5890 level. Next supports are at 5868,5844,level.So today the main intra resistance are at 5945 and 5974 level and on downside be alert below 5890 and avoid longs if below 5868 level.

FDI in retail will benefit consumers, farmers, says PM Manmohan Singh !!!

A day after winning Parliament's approval to the decision of allowing FDI in retail, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh today said the move will benefit farmers and consumers and help introduce new technologies in agri marketing. He also said the decision to allow FDI was "supported" by farmers' organizations in Punjab. Speaking as a chief guest at Punjab Agricultural University's golden jubilee function here, he said FDI in retail will help introduce new technologies in agri marketing, and will "benefit farmers and consumers". The decision to allow FDI was backed by farmers' organizations in Punjab, he said at the PAU function, where he was honored with a Doctor of Science degree. Government had yesterday won the approval of Parliament to its controversial decision of allowing FDI in multi-brand retail with a motion against it being defeated convincingly in Rajya Sabha, as BSP voted in favor of UPA. 123 members had voted against the motion while 109 voted in favor after a debate during which the Opposition had attacked the proposal to allow 51 % FDI in multi-brand retail, while the government had strongly justified it saying it was in the best interest of the country. Speaking at the University, Singh asked leading farm varsities like PAU to gear up to meet the existing and future challenges in the agriculture sector. He said agriculture supply chains in India are fragmented and stressed the need for development of efficient and vertically integrated supply chains. Stressing that investments in backend infrastructure can help cut down loss of perishable crops, he asked Punjab "to take the lead in best practices of crop management". Singh also hoped that Punjab will fare better as 12th five-year plan has for the country as a whole "targeted 8.2 growth in the GDP and 4 per cent in agriculture".

Morgan Stanley's best picks for 2013: Gold, Silver !!!

Gold, silver and corn will outperform other raw materials next year as a weaker dollar and rising investor demand bolster precious metals while supply curbs aid grains, Morgan Stanley said, listing top picks for 2013. Silver will track gold, which is poised to gain on low real interest rates, buying by central banks and geopolitical uncertainty, analysts including Peter Richardson and Hussein Allidina wrote in a report on Thursday, reiterating an October call. Corn and soya beans should benefit from harvest delays in South America, they said. The bank is bearish on aluminum, sugar, nickel and uranium as supplies are set to outpace demand. Morgan Stanley joins Goldman Sachs Group in predicting the so-called super-cycle isn't over. "Higher prices in recent years have brought both a supply and demand response, bringing many to call for the end" of the super-cycle, they wrote. Gold may average $1,853 an ounce in 2013, while silver may be $35 an ounce, Morgan Stanley said. That compares with gold's average of $1,668 so far this year and $31.1542 for silver. Soya beans may average $15.70 a bushel in 2012-2013, it said.

NIFTY INDEX LEVELS FOR TODAY

Nifty closed on a slight bullish note at 5930.90 So today the first resistance for nifty is at 5959 level. Next resistance ranges are at 5990,6006 levels. On downside first support is at 5897 level. Next supports are at 5868 level.So today the main intra resistance are at 5964 and 5988 level and on downside be alert below 5897 and avoid longs if below 5868 level.

Supreme Court gives Sahara more time to refund investors !!!

In a partial relief to Sahara, the Supreme Court on Wednesday gave the Subrata Roy-led group more time to refund money to its bond investors. SC asked Sahara to deposit Rs 5,120 crore upfront to the Securities & Exchange Board of India (SEBI), and pay the remainder in two instalments in January and February. Stating that Sahara has to repay Rs 17,400 crore with 15% interest in three instalments. SC told SEBI to take action if the group defaults on repayment. On Monday, a bench, headed by Chief Justice Altamas Kabir, had made several adverse comments about the "conduct" and "intentions" of the company for failing to meet the November 30, 2012, deadline to pay the amount to Sebi which was to route it to investors. On Tuesday, when the bench reconvened, Sahara counsel Gopal Subramanium sought time till the afternoon to enable him to firm up his statement to court. Since the bench was on ly sitting in the forenoon on Tuesday, CJI Kabir adjourned the hearing till Wednesday. Sahara has been claiming to Sebi that all the money has been invested in its Amby Valley projects in 63 cities. It has also been claiming that it has paid off most of its small-time investors and only a balance of Rs 5,000 crore was left to be paid. Sahara has been denying any wrongdoing and has been insisting that it had offered the money to Sebi and accompanying papers about its investors, but Sebi has been refusing to accept it. It first approached the SAT to direct the market regulator to receive the Rs 5,000 crore and moved the SC after the Tribunal turned it away. A different bench had in a August 31 order asked two Sahara firms to pay the Rs 17,400 crore with interest to Sebi within three months. Sebi moved a contempt application before that bench when Sahara did not pay up, but the bench refused to act on it and directed Sebi to proceed against Sahara and implement the court order.

GOLD INTRA OR POSITIONAL CALL

BUY GOLD 05FEB2013 AROUND 31400 WITH SL 31320 TGT 31450/31500/31600

Global & local cues that will impact Nifty today

The US markets finished modestly lower across the board with the Dow and S&P 500 snapping a three-day winning streak, weighed by a weaker-than-expected manufacturing report, even as there are new details of a counter-offer from house republicans to avert the fiscal cliff. The CBOE VIX closed above 16. The European markets closed off their best levels following weak manufacturing data from US, however news that Spain had formally requested an EU bailout for its banks helped limit losses. Spain formally requested a bailout for its struggling banks to be disbursed on December 12. Asian markets are trading weak. China's Shanghai Composite slipped 0.30% or 5.83 points at 1,953.93. Hong Kong's Hang Seng was down 0.36% or 78.49 points at 21,689.36. Japan's Nikkei was down 0.12% or 11.28 points at 9,446.90. Singapore's Straits Times shed 0.29% or 8.96 points at 3,056.78. South Korea's Seoul Composite fell 0.46% or 8.99 points at 1,931.03. Taiwan's Taiwan Weighted was down 0.77% or 58.50 points at 7,541.41. Back home, the Nifty closed 9 points lower to 5,870.

Nifty Impact:Parliament's winter session resumes

Parliament will resume today after no-show last week over the FDI storm. Voting of FDI in retail will take place in both houses this week. Parliamentary affairs minister is confident that all the important bills of the finance ministry will be passed in this session. In its bid to attract more foreign inflows the government has hiked the FII cap debt limit by USD 10 billion. Two new windows of USD 5 billion have been created in government-securities and corporate bonds. The ECB cap remains unchanged. The US markets ended narrowly mixed in lackluster trading on the final day of November, as investors were reluctant to make big bets ahead of the weekend amid ongoing fiscal cliff discussions. For the week, Dow rose 0.12%, S&P 500 rose 0.50% and Nasdaq rallied 1.46%. The CBOE volatility index finished near 16. The European markets ended mixed in choppy trading as German lawmakers approved a plan to ease the conditions on bailout loans to Greece and amid ongoing discussions over the US budget European Central Bank president Mario Draghi said that the eurozone crisis is far from over. Addressing top financial officials in Paris today, Draghi said that eurozone countries must tighten budgets and forge a banking union to leave behind the fairy world that allowed problems to grow. Asian markets were subdued in morning trade today. Meanwhile, China's November official services PMI inched up to 55.6 from 55.5 in October. At 7: 46 am (IST), Asian markets were trading higher. China's Shanghai Composite was up 0.19% or 3.83 points at 1,983.95. Hong Kong's Hang Seng advanced 0.47% or 104.33 points at 22,134.72. Japan's Nikkei gained 0.80% or 75.16 points at 9,521.17. Singapore's Straits Times rose 0.44% or 13.38 points at 3,083.33. South Korea's Seoul Composite was up 0.36% or 7.04 points at 1,939.94. Taiwan's Taiwan Weighted added 0.40% or 30.23 points at 7,610.40. Back home, it was a firm session for our markets on Friday. The Nifty gained 55 points to close at 5,879.